Improving Communication and Validation of Ecological Models

Résumé du livre

We designed and performed experiments to derive more precise parameters and to better understand the movement behaviour of this freshwater isopod. The experimental procedure that we developed employed video tracking of marked individuals that were introduced alone or as part of a group of unmarked individuals into arenas of approximately 1m2 in size. We recorded the paths of the marked individuals under a set of different conditions, i.e. presence or absence of food or shelter, population density, and after sublethal exposure to chlorpyrifos and imidacloprid. Based on the experimental findings, we refined the movement modelling procedure used in MASTEP to derive more realistic dispersal estimates, with which we revisited a modelling study performed previously by Galic et al. (2012). In this study, the effects of pesticide application timing on population dynamics and recovery times were tested and compared to outcomes from previous versions. It was furthermore possible to integrate an increased level of environmental complexity that could not be addressed before due to a lack of data. Compared to former versions of the population model, recovery times did not change significantly when the same movement parameters were applied to all simulated individuals. This indicates that the previous assumptions already yielded robust estimations. Accounting for life stage dependent movement restraints, though, delayed recovery when exposure occurred shortly before a reproduction cycle. Based on these findings, it was concluded that an increase of ever more realism and environmental complexity in modelling studies needs to be done carefully on a case-by-case basis. Increased realism in models can introduce an unwarranted increase in model complexity and uncertainty, which is not always supporting an improved credibility level of a model.